Titolo della tesi: A study on Private Capital Markets: History, drivers and performance analysis
This dissertation offers a comprehensive analysis of private capital markets, examining their historical evolution, structural and macroeconomic drivers, relative performance, and future trends. The first chapter defines the role of private capital in today’s global financial landscape, highlighting its rapid growth and increasing relevance for both institutional and retail investors amid technological innovations and systemic shocks. The second chapter focuses on the venture capital segment, investigating its macroeconomic and structural determinants across 19 advanced economies (2007–2022) through an empirical panel data analysis. Results show that entrepreneurship (TEA), research intensity, labor market dynamics, and media attention significantly influence venture funding. The third chapter explores the relationship between public attention (proxied by Google Trends) and capital inflows into emerging sectors. Evidence suggests that digital salience precedes investment flows in verticals such as Generative AI and ClimateTech. The final chapter evaluates private capital fund performance using a modified Takahashi–Alexander model to reconstruct cash flows, combined with Long-Nickels and Kaplan–Schoar Public Market Equivalent (PME) metrics. The findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in returns, with top-quartile funds—especially in secondaries and venture capital—consistently outperforming public benchmarks. The thesis contributes to the debate on private capital’s strategic role and democratization, emphasizing both the opportunities and risks of broader retail participation.