Titolo della tesi: Essays on Political Trust and Economic opportunities
Political trust, social cohesion, and equal opportunities are fundamental pillars of democratic stability and societal well-being. However, recent economic downturns and the growing digital divide have contributed to increasing political distrust and widening socio-economic disparities. Understanding the determinants of trust and the extent to which individuals can shape their economic and social outcomes within their realm of possibilities is crucial to foster a fair and resilient society. This thesis explores these challenges through three interconnected analyses, focusing on the determinants of political trust, the evolution of trust across socio-economic groups, and the role of individual effort in shaping economic opportunities.
The first chapter investigates the impact of internet use on political trust in Italy between 2014 and 2022. Using individual-level data, the analysis reveals a robust negative relationship between online political information consumption and confidence in political institutions. However, this effect varies significantly depending on the source of information: while political trust declines with exposure to social media, where misinformation is more prevalent, it increases when political content is accessed via online newspapers. These findings highlight the dual role of digital media in shaping political attitudes.
The second chapter examines trust dynamics across socio-economic groups in Europe, particularly in response to major economic downturns. By introducing a robust comparative framework based on cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), this study provides a refined assessment of trust heterogeneity across the European population. Using data from the European Social Survey (ESS), it finds significant variations in trust evolution between socio-economic groups, depending on whether the population is partitioned based on income levels or background circumstances. The results underscore the impact of socio-economic disparities on trust erosion and its broader implications for social stability and welfare.
The third chapter shifts focus to the literature on equality of opportunity, introducing a novel individual-level measure of reward to effort. Building on Roemer’s Identification Assumption (RIA), this measure quantifies the extent to which individuals can influence their economic outcomes through effort, given their circumstances. Using adaptive kernel density estimation, the analysis applies this framework to the UK Understanding Society dataset, deriving an individual measure of reward to effort based on both total and labor income distributions. The findings reveal substantial variation in these measures across \textit{EOp types}, contributing to the debate on equality of opportunity and its policy implications.
Together, these three studies provide a comprehensive perspective on the role of information, socio-economic disparities, and individual effort in shaping political trust and economic opportunity. By combining empirical evidence with normative analysis, this thesis advances our understanding of the mechanisms underlying trust dynamics and inequality, offering insights relevant for policy design in modern democracies.