Thesis title: DALLA PERCEZIONE DEL RISCHIO IDRAULICO AI PIANI DI EMERGENZA. ANALISI STORICA, CLIMATICA E MODELLAZIONE SUL COMUNE DI ROMA.
The increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, driven by climate change, is leading to a systemic rise in hydraulic risk in urban areas, posing increasingly complex challenges for territorial management and civil protection (Blöschl, Günter, 2023; Wahl, T., 2019). It is from this critical context that the present research takes shape, focusing entirely on the analysis of hydraulic risk from multiple angles—technical, historical, perceptual, and operational—with the goal of outlining integrated urban adaptation strategies.
An introductory analysis, based on future climate scenarios and the updating of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves through Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), clearly demonstrates that short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events are expected to increase throughout the century, with significant impacts on urban infrastructure and public safety (Madsen, Henrik, 2009; Pendergrass, Angeline G., 2018). This preliminary evidence provides the framework within which this research develops.
The thesis is structured along three main, interconnected, and complementary lines of inquiry, aimed at addressing urban hydraulic risk through an integrated and multidisciplinary approach. The first focuses on the historical-hydrological analysis of the relationship between the city of Rome and the Tiber River, reconstructing the evolution of hydraulic and urban adaptation strategies across different historical and political-territorial contexts. This offers an evolutionary perspective on the transformations of urban vulnerability.
The second line of investigation centers on an empirical study of hydraulic risk perception among urban residents, carried out through the administration of structured questionnaires. This analysis explores the role of direct experience, institutional trust, and self-protective behaviors in shaping social vulnerability and adaptive capacity, with particular attention to the cognitive and relational dimensions of risk (Giuliano Di Baldassarre et al., 2021; Mondino, Scolobig, et al., 2020).
The third component focuses on rapid modeling of pedestrian exposure to dynamic flash flood scenarios, using agent-based simulations. The objective is to evaluate the interaction between pedestrians and water flow, based on topographical, temporal, and behavioral variables, thereby providing operational guidance for the planning and optimization of urban evacuation plans (Musolino et al., 2022; Samany et al., 2021).
Taken together, these analyses aim to offer a systemic understanding of urban hydraulic risk, in which technical, perceptual, and social dimensions are integrated within adaptation strategies that are effective, inclusive, and capable of engaging with the complexity of the contemporary urban fabric. In this regard, the case study of Rome serves as an emblematic laboratory for testing innovative approaches to risk management in a historically rich, densely urbanized, and highly exposed environment.