Dottorato in BIOLOGIA AMBIENTALE ED EVOLUZIONISTICA

Titolo della tesi: How will halting biodiversity loss affect the achievement of other Sustainable Development Goals?

Summary Global biodiversity is experiencing a steep decline caused by anthropogenic activities. By losing biodiversity, humanity loses one of the most extraordinary features of life on earth. However, worsening biodiversity trends also have effects beyond the natural world, since human well-being is highly dependent on outputs and processes that emerge from the interaction between different biodiversity components, known as Ecosystem Services. The interactions that determine how biodiversity loss affects ecosystem services provision are complex and not completely understood, while the positive effects of biodiversity in human well-being are poorly acknowledged, especially beyond the scientific community. As a result of recognising that humans are transforming the planet in ways that could undermine development, the Sustainable Development Goals emerged as a global agreement. It set a plan of action towards prosperity for people and the planet through sustainable development, a development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the needs of future generations. For the goals to become a real path of development they have to be advanced as a whole. Among the SDGs, earth precondition goals have been defined as a prerequisite for a thriving global society because they represent the earth's life-support systems on which the welfare of current and future generations depends. Therefore, understanding how biodiversity underpins human wellbeing, and implementing effective ways to integrate these positive values into policy decision-making that protects nature is key for the successful achievement of nature related targets. While biodiversity loss is expected to worsen because of extrinsic threats including climate and land use change, scenarios are a common tool to produce future trends of biodiversity loss. Less common scenario applications can also elucidate the effects of losing biodiversity 5in ecosystem services with a straightforward message able to influence policy-making. In this regard, I set three objectives for my thesis that could advance the recognition and applicability of the role of biodiversity in sustainable development. These objectives are: 1. Communicate to a non-expert audience positive feedback between biodiversity and well-functioning ecosystems as a key concept that underpins a long-term supply of ecosystem services on which global food systems and food security stand. 2. Identify the challenges and opportunities for the integration of the Common Agricultural Policy into the EU Green deal framework along three axes: protection of biodiversity, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustainable management of natural resources. 3. Explore synergies between conservation of biodiversity and the production of socio- economic important crops, using future global change scenarios to evaluate the effect of different socio-economic pathways in the future habitat suitability of cacao pollinators and explore this effect in future crop production. The first introductory chapter is a literature review materialised into a literature database that exemplifies local and regional initiatives that demonstrate synergies between three levels of biodiversity, genes, species and ecosystems, and its benefits to each of the Sustainable Development Goals. The Biodiversity Contributions to people are proposed on the basis of four types of contribution to production processes or the maintenance of natural processes with biodiversity as a physical input, an enabling factor, a mitigation or a protection agent. I found that biodiversity exerts a positive influence in all the development goals analysed. A major number of positive interactions were associated with SDG 2 (Zero hunger), SDG 3 (Good health and well-being), and SDG 11 (Sustainable cities and communities). 6Based on the knowledge acquired in the first chapter, the second chapter explored in detail the relation between mammal species, their functions in ecosystems and their benefits to food production. Using a language accessible to non-biodiversity experts, I discussed the implications that the loss of mammal species would have in food security worldwide. I found that mammal diversity is particularly important for rural and indigenous communities whose diets are highly dependent on resources provided directly by mammal diversity and enhanced when abundant populations are protected. However, mammal importance extends to agricultural systems all over the world where the functional role of top predators, ecosystem engineers, terrestrial seed dispersers, pollinators, among others have been proven to have a direct effect on food production. The positive synergy between mammal diversity and the mitigation climate was a context element jointly explored. Based on a review of proven good practices in agricultural landscapes, I proposed the enhancement of five policy areas that could make agricultural production align with biodiversity conservation on a regional and local basis. In the third chapter, following the knowledge gained in the previous chapters, and with the aim to identify the challenges and opportunities that policies that protect biodiversity have to be integrated in agricultural policies, I evaluated pathways of integration between two regional policies within the European Union. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the European Green Deal. The Green Deal is an ambitious set of policies to guide the EU towards climate neutrality and restoration of natural ecosystems by 2050, while the CAP is the major European instrument for agricultural planning. I found that the environmental practices rewarded by the CAP lack appropriate landscape planning measures, worsening the risk to biodiversity and ecosystem services driven by landscape and biotic homogenization. Funding allocation mechanisms are not tailored to mitigate agricultural emissions, decreasing the efficiency of climate mitigation actions, and the legislation subsidises farms making 7extensive use of synthetic inputs without adequately supporting sustainable alternatives such as organic production. I recommended proper control mechanisms including a revision of funds’ assignment criteria to grant proportionally adequate resources for each CAP objective, quantitative targets to guide interventions, and clear performance indicators to assess environmental benefits. In the fourth chapter, I run global scenarios of climate and land use change to understand the effects that different development pathways will have on wild pollinators of cacao. Cacao production is highly dependent on wild pollination with 90% of its production being lost in the absence of pollinators. However knowledge on the pollinator species and its ecological requirements is scarce and sparse, making it difficult to adopt and implement favourable agricultural practices. My objective was to advance the knowledge on cacao pollinator species, their ecological features and geographical distribution to understand their susceptibility to global change under three contrasting socio-economic scenarios between 2015 and 2050. I found that habitat suitability of pollinators declined globally in two out of three scenarios, being the “sustainability” scenario the only one in which an increment in suitability could be expected. Asia is the most vulnerable region, experiencing large losses in habitat suitability in all main producing countries under all scenarios, while American and African countries could maintain their production areas under a sustainable development scenario. Climate change adaptation will be necessary in most major producing countries. The study presents the first global assessment of climate and land-cover change impacts on pollinators of cacao. I hope that the results of this thesis advance the knowledge, and recognition of the role of biodiversity in agricultural systems. Since agricultural production is a key driver of biodiversity loss, finding mechanisms that protect and maintain biodiversity among working landscapes is essential for the conservation of many species, in turn making agriculture 8landscapes more productive and resilient. The use of biodiversity as an underpinning element of ecosystem services represents an opportunity to adopt production practices that enhance both biodiversity and agricultural outputs at the same time. The adoption of proven beneficial practices for biodiversity in agricultural landscapes is limited to the acknowledgement of biodiversity benefits, but also to the development of facilitating mechanisms that allow for their applicability at local and regional scales. Making knowledge accessible to policy makers and finding pathways for the integration of biodiversity in development policies and business strategies can improve the chances of halting biodiversity loss and meeting the objectives of the SDG agenda.