PhD Graduate

PhD program:: XXXV

supervisor: Prof Serena Arima
co-supervisor: Prof Francesco Pesce

Thesis title: A Bayesian nonparametric approach to correct for underreporting in count data

In this research thesis we deal with the issue of underreporting, often affecting administrative data particularly in developing countries or more deprived areas within a country or region, with particular focus on its effects on the estimation of the prevalence of a phenomenon. When health or vital statistics are concerned, underreporting may severely affect estimates, impacting on government intervention policies and resource allocation. We propose a nonparametric compound Poisson model that introduces a latent clustering structure for the reporting probabilities and estimates them jointly with the model’s parameters exploiting an auxiliary variable associated with the reporting process. The proposed model is then used to estimate the prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in Apulia, Italy, from unpublished administrative data coming from a retrospective study conducted between the 1st of January 2011 and the 31st of December 2013. Whereas accurate estimation of the prevalence is necessary for monitoring, surveillance and management purposes, counts are expected to be considerably underreported, especially in some areas of Apulia, which is one of the most deprived and heterogeneous regions in Italy. Our results agree with previous findings and experts’ expectations and highlight interesting geographical patterns of the disease. We compare our model to existing approaches in the literature using simulated as well as real data described in previous literature, namely early neonatal mortality risk in Minas Gerais, Brazil. In comparison with alternative models, the proposed approach proves to be accurate and particularly suitable when prior information about data quality is not completely accurate.

Research products

11573/1690034 - 2023 - A Bayesian nonparametric approach to correct for underreporting in count data
Arima, Serena; Polettini, Silvia; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Gesualdo, Loreto; Pesce, Francesco; Procaccini, Deni-Aldo - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: BIOSTATISTICS (OXFORD UNIV PRESS, GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD, ENGLAND, OX2 6DP) pp. - - issn: 1465-4644 - wos: WOS:001079899000001 (0) - scopus: (0)

11573/1685553 - 2023 - GALAD score outperforms aMAP and ALBI scores in the 5- and 10-year prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD): a 12-year prospective study
Baldaccini, Valentina; Ascari, Sara; Critelli, Rosina Maria; Pesole, Letizia; Lasagni, Simone; Coletta, Sergio; Tedesco, Calogero Claudio; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Donghia, Rossella; Semellini, Filippo; Villa, Erica; Giannelli, Gianluigi - 01h Abstract in rivista
paper: JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY (Blackwell Munksgaard:PO Box 2148, Periodicals Department, DK-1016 Copenhagen K Denmark:011 45 33 755913, EMAIL:, INTERNET:, Fax: 011 45 77 333377) pp. S493-S493 - issn: 0168-8278 - wos: WOS:001037135102009 (0) - scopus: (0)

11573/1691854 - 2023 - Learning characteristics of graph neural networks predicting protein–ligand affinities
Mastropietro, Andrea; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Bajorath, Jürgen - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: NATURE MACHINE INTELLIGENCE (London: Nature Research, 2019-) pp. - - issn: 2522-5839 - wos: WOS:001101937000001 (2) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85176461869 (6)

11573/1668281 - 2023 - NIAPU: Network-Informed Adaptive Positive-Unlabeled learning for disease gene identification
Stolfi, Paola; Mastropietro, Andrea; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Vergni, Davide; Tieri, Paolo - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: BIOINFORMATICS (-Oxford : Oxford University Press, 1998-) pp. - - issn: 1367-4803 - wos: (0) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85148307362 (4)

11573/1613145 - 2022 - A Bayesian non parametric approach for bias correction for underreported data.
Arima, Serena; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Polettini, Silvia - 02a Capitolo o Articolo
book: IES 2022 Innovation & Society 5.0: Statistical and Economic Methodologies for Quality Assessment - (978-88-94593-35-8)

11573/1626863 - 2022 - Early versus delayed antiretroviral therapy based on genotypic resistance test: Results from a large retrospective cohort study
Bavaro Davide, Fiore; De Vito, Andrea; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Bouba, Yagai; Magnasco, Laura; Pincino, Rachele; Saladini, Francesco; Lattanzio, Rossana; Corsini, Romina; Arima, Serena; Zazzi, Maurizio; Incardona, Francesca; Rossetti, Barbara; Bezenchek, Antonia; Borghi, Vanni; Di Biagio, Antonio - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: JOURNAL OF MEDICAL VIROLOGY (-Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons Incorporated -[New York] Alan R. Liss, 1977-) pp. 3890-3899 - issn: 0146-6615 - wos: WOS:000779725500001 (0) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85127625906 (0)

11573/1599942 - 2022 - Predictors of virological failure among people living with HIV switching from an effective first-line antiretroviral regimen
Laura Magnasco, Dr.; Rachele Pincino, Dr.; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Yagai Bouba, Dr.; Francesco Saladini, Dr.; Davide Fiore Bavaro, Dr.; Andrea De Vito, Dr.; Rossana Lattanzio, Dr.; Romina Corsini, Dr.; Maurizio Zazzi, Prof.; Francesca Incardona, Dr.; Barbara Rossetti, Dr.; Antonia Bezenchek, Dr.; Vanni Borghi, Dr.; Antonio Di Biagio, And Dr. - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: AIDS RESEARCH AND HUMAN RETROVIRUSES (Mary Ann Liebert Incorporated:2 Madison Avenue:Larchmont, NY 10538:(914)834-3100, EMAIL:,, INTERNET:, Fax: (914)834-3688) pp. 463-471 - issn: 0889-2229 - wos: WOS:000760629300001 (0) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85131770925 (0)

11573/1661039 - 2022 - Protocol to explain graph neural network predictions using an edge-centric Shapley value-based approach
Mastropietro, Andrea; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Bajorath, Jürgen - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: STAR PROTOCOLS (: New York: Cell Press Elsevier Inc) pp. - - issn: 2666-1667 - wos: WOS:001058452300008 (1) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85142483416 (2)

11573/1652545 - 2022 - EdgeSHAPer: Bond-Centric Shapley Value-Based Explanation Method for Graph Neural Networks
Mastropietro, Andrea; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Feldmann, Christian; Rodríguezpérez, Raquel; Bajorath, Jürgen - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: ISCIENCE ([Cambridge MA] : Cell Press Elsevier Inc.) pp. - - issn: 2589-0042 - wos: WOS:000888874800005 (10) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85138031675 (10)

11573/1604075 - 2022 - Identification of glomerulosclerosis using IBM Watson and shallow neural networks
Pesce, Francesco; Albanese, Federica; Mallardi, Davide; Rossini, Michele; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Suavo-Bulzis, Paola; Granata, Antonio; Brunetti, Antonio; Cascarano, Giacomo Donato; Bevilacqua, Vitoantonio; Gesualdo, Loreto - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: JN. JOURNAL OF NEPHROLOGY (Wichtig Editore:Via Friuli 72 74, I 20135 Milan Italy:011 39 02 5455122, 011 39 2 55195443, EMAIL:, INTERNET:, Fax: 011 39 2 55195971) pp. - - issn: 1121-8428 - wos: WOS:000743853600003 (5) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85123060056 (6)

11573/1645170 - 2022 - “The Disease Awareness Innovation Network” for chronic kidney disease identification in general practice
Pesce, Francesco; Pasculli, Domenico; Pasculli, Giuseppe; De Nicola, Luca; Cozzolino, Mario; Granata, Antonio; Gesualdo, Loreto - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: JN. JOURNAL OF NEPHROLOGY (Springer Nature Milano: Wichtig.) pp. 2057-2065 - issn: 1724-6059 - wos: WOS:000810816300001 (5) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85131919530 (4)

11573/1631757 - 2022 - MO492: ‘The Disease Awareness Innovation Network’ (DANTE) Framework for Chronic Kidney Disease Diagnosis
Pesce, Francesco; Pasculli, Domenico; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Sivo, Carmen; Serena Russo, Maria; Granata, Antonio; Gesualdo, Loreto - 01h Abstract in rivista
paper: NEPHROLOGY DIALYSIS TRANSPLANTATION (Oxford University Press:Journals Department, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP United Kingdom:011 44 1865 556767, EMAIL:, INTERNET:, Fax: 011 44 1865 267485) pp. - - issn: 0931-0509 - wos: (0) - scopus: (0)

11573/1660804 - 2022 - Economic impact of industry-sponsored clinical trials in inflammatory bowel diseases: Results from the national institute of gastroenterology “Saverio de Bellis”
Polignano, Maurizio Gaetano; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Trisolini, Pietro; Di Lorenzo, Michele Albino; Dalfino, Giuseppe; Giannelli, Gianluigi - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: FRONTIERS IN PHARMACOLOGY (Lausanne: Frontiers Media S.A., 2010-) pp. - - issn: 1663-9812 - wos: WOS:000893961800001 (0) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85143330869 (0)

Shahini, E.; Pasculli, G.; Mastropietro, A.; Stolfi, P.; Tieri, P.; Vergni, D.; Cozzolongo, R.; Giannelli, G.; Pesce, F. - 01h Abstract in rivista
paper: DIGESTIVE AND LIVER DISEASE (-Roma: Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana; Milano: Elsevier -Roma: Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana. -Ospedaletto Pisa: Pacini) pp. S106- - issn: 1590-8658 - wos: WOS:000791821000096 (1) - scopus: (0)

11573/1650880 - 2022 - Network Proximity-Based Drug Repurposing Strategy for Early and Late Stages of Primary Biliary Cholangitis
Shahini, Endrit; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Mastropietro, Andrea; Stolfi, Paola; Tieri, Paolo; Vergni, Davide; Cozzolongo, Raffaele; Pesce, Francesco; Giannelli, Gianluigi - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: BIOMEDICINES (Basel : MDPI) pp. 1694- - issn: 2227-9059 - wos: WOS:000832261000001 (0) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85136347643 (1)

11573/1648128 - 2022 - Role of plasma phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain (pNfH) in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis
Zecca, Chiara; Dell’Abate, Maria Teresa; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Capozzo, Rosa; Barone, Roberta; Arima, Serena; Pollice, Alessio; Brescia, Vincenzo; Tortelli, Rosanna; Logroscino, Giancarlo - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: JOURNAL OF CELLULAR AND MOLECULAR MEDICINE (Bucharest : Foundation for Cellular and Molecular Medicine.) pp. 3608-3615 - issn: 1582-1838 - wos: WOS:000812600300001 (4) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85132074492 (4)

11573/1566121 - 2021 - Bias correction for underreported data in small area mapping.
Arima, Serena; Gesualdo, Loreto; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Pesce, Francesco; Polettini, Silvia; Procaccini., Deni-Aldo - 04b Atto di convegno in volume
conference: Proceedings of the GRASPA 2021 Conference (Roma)
book: Proceedings of the GRASPA 2021 Conference - (979-12-200-8496-3)

11573/1581532 - 2021 - Diagnostic and prognostic role of plasma phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain (pNf-H) in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis
Dell'abate, Maria Teresa; Zecca, Chiara; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Barone, Roberta; Capozzo, Rosa; Barulli, Maria Rosaria; Arima, Serena; Pollice, Alessio; Tortelli, Rosanna; Logroscino, Giancarlo - 01h Abstract in rivista
paper: JOURNAL OF THE NEUROLOGICAL SCIENCES (Elsevier BV:PO Box 211, 1000 AE Amsterdam Netherlands:011 31 20 4853757, 011 31 20 4853642, 011 31 20 4853641, EMAIL:, INTERNET:, Fax: 011 31 20 4853598) pp. 119400- - issn: 0022-510X - wos: WOS:000713637303140 (0) - scopus: (0)

11573/1565282 - 2021 - Adaptive Positive-Unlabelled Learning via Markov Diffusion
Stolfi, Paola; Mastropietro, Andrea; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Tieri, Paolo; Vergni, Davide - 02a Capitolo o Articolo
book: Computer Science and Machine Learning - ()

11573/1566463 - 2021 - The Role of Age on Beta-Amyloid1–42 Plasma Levels in Healthy Subjects
Zecca, Chiara; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Tortelli, Rosanna; Teresa Dell’Abate, Maria; Capozzo, Rosa; Rosaria Barulli, Maria; Barone, Roberta; Accogli, Miriam; Arima, Serena; Pollice, Alessio; Brescia, Vincenzo; Logroscino, Giancarlo - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: FRONTIERS IN AGING NEUROSCIENCE (Lausanne : Frontiers Research Foundation, 2009-) pp. - - issn: 1663-4365 - wos: WOS:000411328604472 (0) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85114884924 (8)

11573/1395087 - 2020 - A Non-Stationary Markov Model for Economic Evaluation of Grass Pollen Allergoid Immunotherapy
Bilancia, Massimo; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Di Bona, Danilo - 01a Articolo in rivista
paper: PLOS ONE (San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science) pp. - - issn: 1932-6203 - wos: WOS:000537490700032 (3) - scopus: 2-s2.0-85084832818 (3)

Zazzi, Maurizio; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Rossetti, Barbara; Fabbiani, Massimiliano; Incardona, Francesca; Theys, Kristof; Abecasis, Ana; Devaux, Carole; Kaiser, Rolf; Sönnerborg, Anders; Pasculli, Giuseppe; Vercauteren, Jurgen - 04f Poster
conference: CROI Congress 2020 (Boston, US.)

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