Thesis title: Scenarios of Green Infrastructure expansion to achieve the 2030 EU Biodiversity Strategy objectives
Biodiversity loss and climate change are critical global challenges, with declining Nature’s
Contributions to People (NCP) threatening climate mitigation and adaptation. Agriculture, urbanization, and pollution are major drivers, while the EU promotes an energy transition through renewable sources, particularly wind energy, which also poses risks to wildlife. The European Habitats Directive and Natura 2000 network of protected areas aim to protect priority species and habitats, yet limited funding, poor management, and connectivity gaps undermine their effectiveness. The EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 seeks to strengthen conservation efforts by expanding protected areas to 30% of Europe and enhancing connectivity through Green and Blue Infrastructure (GBI). Thus, this thesis addresses key aspects of biodiversity conservation and planning, with a focus on setting conservation targets, developing positive future narrative, enhancing ecological connectivity through Green Infrastructure (GI), and mitigating the impacts of wind energy development on biodiversity.
First, we establish conservation targets for European terrestrial mammals listed in Annexes II and IV of the Habitats Directive and/or threatened according to the IUCN Red List. These targets, grounded in the concept of Favourable Conservation Status (FCS), are projected for 2030 using models of population growth and range expansion, as well as a reference-based approach. Such targets provide a foundation for conservation planning, particularly in the context of increasing protected area coverage to 30% of Europe.
Second, we explore the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) as a tool to develop positive biodiversity conservation scenarios. Through expert elicitation, we formulate three narratives of plausible and positive futures for nature: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture, addressing key themes such as protected areas, forests, freshwater ecosystems, urban systems, agriculture, and energy. By integrating biodiversity conservation with socio-economic objectives, these narratives may inform policies that align conservation goals with human well-being.
Third, we prioritize and map Green Infrastructure in Italy. Using spatial analysis and prioritization tools, we identify GI networks that enhance habitat connectivity, support species conservation, and provide Nature Contribution to People (NCP) simultaneously. We evaluate different GI expansion scenarios and highlight the role of GI in complementing existing protected areas by enhancing connectivity and delivering essential NCPs, thereby contributing to biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.
Finally, we test the role of GI in offsetting the ecological impacts of human development in Italy, focusing on wind energy as a case study. By overlaying wind farm locations with species distributions and NCPs, we identify disturbance hotspots and propose GI networks for ecological compensation. Using the Red List Index and weighted compensation metrics, we assess the effectiveness of these offsetting measures. Our findings indicate that GI-based compensation can enhance ecological connectivity and mitigate biodiversity losses, providing a scalable strategy to integrate conservation into land-use and infrastructure planning.
This thesis contributes to the scientific and policy discourse on biodiversity conservation, informing conservation actions by proposing data-driven approaches for setting conservation targets and by developing positive nature future narratives. Additionally, defining a framework to identify GI and to incorporate them into mitigation strategies in Italy, contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of protected area planning. By linking conservation planning with socio-economic development frameworks, this work provides actionable insights that support the achievement of conservation goals while promoting long-term sustainability for both biodiversity and human well-being.