Thesis title: Revision of a Third-Party Risk Assessment Model around Airports
The development and land-use around airports represents a subject of concern and interest for Airports Operators on one side and Public Community, Business Communities and Local Authorities on the other side. Airports development and operations are subject to national and international regulations.
Such development and operations requirements or conditions typically extend outside of the airport property land or perimeter fence.
Typical International Airports’ regulations, recommendations and guidance documents, such those related to the Noise Exposure or Obstacle Limitation Surfaces, and their equivalent national regulations or standards (when existing) normally address land-use planning issues around airports.
Individual Third-party Risk Assessment of an Airport’s Operations complements above mentioned regulations by providing means to validate the land use compatibility or, when necessary, to restrict and control the activity outside, but in the vicinity of the Airport perimeter.
It became then necessary to develop Risk Assessment Models to define or validate Public Safety Areas /Runway Protection Zones, to support land-use compatibility, While several such models exist and are based on a QRA approach, important differences exist among these models. Most of these models have been developed based on an evolutionally approach, in the last 20 to 35 years by considering aircraft accident history (some of these accidents have been the trigger for the development of these models).
This research continues in the same evolutionary approach by analyzing existing models, by developing an updated accident database and then by proposing revised risk assessment models.
Finally, the proposed revision of the probability model presents goodness to fit the existing accident data and has been implemented into a revised tool to calculate risk values for specific airports. Some case studies and sensibility analyses have been performed with the revised tool and the results confirm the validitiy of the research approach.