Thesis title: Globalization Under Strain: Sanctions, Migration, and the Rewiring of World Trade
Over the past decades, globalization—defined by Gupta as the free movement of capital, goods, services, and people across national borders—has profoundly transformed the world economy and international relations. However, a series of global shocks, including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have exposed its fragility. The return of protectionist measures, the reorganization of global value chains, and the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China have marked the onset of a phase of “slowbalization,” characterized by a slowdown and partial reversal of global economic integration.
This dissertation examines how globalization is evolving through three fundamental dimensions of international economic interdependence: trade, migration, and geopolitical alignment.
The first essay analyzes the impact of the sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, employing causal inference methodologies (Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences). The results reveal a significant contraction in European exports, confirming the effectiveness of sanctions as instruments of economic coercion, while also highlighting the costs incurred by the sanctioning countries themselves.
The second essay investigates the determinants of migration from Africa to the European Union through a decomposition approach that distinguishes between origin and destination factors. The findings indicate that the propensity to emigrate is primarily driven by internal conditions—demographic growth, labor market imbalances, economic fragility, and climate-related events—rather than by external pull factors.
Finally, the third essay examines the growing fragmentation of world trade along geopolitical lines, showing how trade flows are being reorganized around the U.S. and Chinese spheres of influence. By applying a novel empirical methodology, this analysis assesses whether geopolitical dynamics are becoming more influential than purely economic factors in determining international trade patterns.
Overall, the dissertation demonstrates that globalization is not disappearing but transforming: economic integration endures, yet its channels and institutions are being reshaped within a new geopolitical configuration.