Thesis title: Polisemia delle crisi nella complessità delle società moderne:una analisi quantitativa per il monitoraggio e la predittività del benessere e della salute dei territori.
This work is based on a theoretical premise that, according to the author, provides the interpretative basis for certain phenomena and fuels their evolutionary processes. Starting from this hypothesis, the research initially addresses the general concept of crisis and the potential effects it can have on specific domains related to individual and collective well-being.
The next section outlines the essential principles of the Catastrophe Theory developed by the mathematician and philosopher René Thom, identifying a possible parallel with the statistical concept of co-integration between trajectories, employed in this study to model long-term dynamics.
The paper continues with the presentation of the main mathematical assumptions and the analytical characteristics of the adopted methodologies, preliminary to the implementation of an empirical application to selected domains of BES (Equitable and Sustainable Well-being) and BesT (Well-being of Territories). The applied analysis uses the concept of co-integration, complemented by the use of artificial neural networks as an auxiliary modeling and forecasting tool.
This section also explains the underlying idea that guides the entire analytical work: it represents the conceptual core that the author intends to transfer in light of the theoretical framework underlying the evolutionary trajectories of indicators belonging to the BES and BesT domains.
The thesis concludes with an overall reflection on the results and considerations related to the same findings, for a possible applicability of the conceptual framework of the work to other social phenomena.