Thesis title: Risorse, popolamento e sussistenza nella Siria - Palestina del Tardo Bronzo. Un'analisi attraverso nuove tecniche di modellazione QGIS
This research contributes to the debate on the population dynamics of Syria-Palestine during the Late Bronze Age (1600–1200 BC), a period traditionally interpreted as a phase of demographic decline and increased nomadism. Starting from this interest, the study adopts a multidisciplinary approach aimed at investigating population from both an archaeological and environmental perspective, integrating demographic analysis with an assessment of the resources available in the area and an analysis of subsistence strategies. The investigation focuses on three representative case studies, selected for their historical and archaeological significance and for the diversity of their respective ecological, political, and economic contexts: Ras Shamra/Ugarit, Tell Mishrifeh/Qatna, and Tell el-Mutesellim/Megiddo.
The topic of urban and regional populations is approached from two complementary viewpoints. The first is archaeological in nature and is based on the analysis of dwelling plans, with the aim of estimating urban populations by calculating the ratio between available living space and the per capita living space coefficient. The second perspective is computational, integrating spatial modelling tools in QGIS to reconstruct and verify urban and regional population estimates. In this context, analyses of catchment area, carrying capacity and the carrying capacity index were conducted to assess agricultural potential and land use methods, as well as to define maximum sustainable population capacity.
Models based on the integration of palaeoenvironmental, palaeoclimatic, archaeological and textual data have emphasised the importance of cereal crops such as wheat and barley, as well as the supplementary role of vines and olive trees, in shaping local economies. The proposed model enables the analysis of subsistence strategies, territorial organisation and environmental resilience in relation to different demographic scenarios, thereby enhancing our understanding of population and land use dynamics at each site during the Late Bronze Age.